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Author Topic: Problem with polls.  (Read 152 times)

Offline clistensprechen

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Problem with polls.
« on: September 19, 2012, 05:44:54 pm »
Rasmussen is often cited by the rightwing because its numbers placate that fiction-loving sector of the voting public, but how does it arrive at its numbers? How do other polls arrive at theirs?

Scientific sampling has nothing to do with Rasmussen, which also "weights" its results by political party, but that ain't all--it uses robocalling to landlines only.

THIS article points out that there's also a significant difference in results between live interview polls and robocalls...as well as a significant difference between landlines-only polls and polls that include cellphones. It's an eye-opener.
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Offline Woody

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2012, 05:49:06 pm »
Quote from: clistensprechen on September 19, 2012, 05:44:54 pm
Rasmussen is often cited by the rightwing because its numbers placate that fiction-loving sector of the voting public, but how does it arrive at its numbers? How do other polls arrive at theirs?

Scientific sampling has nothing to do with Rasmussen, which also "weights" its results by political party, but that ain't all--it uses robocalling to landlines only.

THIS article points out that there's also a significant difference in results between live interview polls and robocalls...as well as a significant difference between landlines-only polls and polls that include cellphones. It's an eye-opener.


Are you complaining only of Rasmussen or are most polls faulty? 





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Offline Woody

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2012, 05:50:44 pm »
Never mind.
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Offline clistensprechen

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2012, 09:41:40 pm »
Given enough time, you can figure it out. Especially after you read the article. ;)
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Offline Woody

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2012, 03:50:44 am »
Quote from: clistensprechen on September 19, 2012, 09:41:40 pm
Given enough time, you can figure it out. Especially after you read the article. ;)


I did.  That is why you get "never mind.". You'll figure it out.
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Offline clistensprechen

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2012, 01:12:38 pm »
But that's what I said, basically. Still slow over there, huh. XD
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Offline Woody

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2012, 03:32:45 pm »
Quote from: clistensprechen on September 20, 2012, 01:12:38 pm
But that's what I said, basically. Still slow over there, huh. XD


You Still haven't figured it.  I commented.  Read the article after the comment.  And had it right. 


That's ok.  I suspect you will attack Gallup next.



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Offline Woody

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2012, 06:11:59 pm »
R 47 O 47


http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx
[/size]
[/size]Clara, is this your next hit piece? 
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Offline wbcoleman

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2012, 06:40:23 pm »
Today's Gallup poll:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

O =47%, Romney = 47%
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Offline wbcoleman

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2012, 06:39:12 pm »
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Offline clistensprechen

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2012, 11:51:15 pm »
The good news is that you guys quit citing Rasmussen.

 :applause:
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Offline Woody

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2012, 07:35:09 am »
Quote from: clistensprechen on September 21, 2012, 11:51:15 pm
The good news is that you guys quit citing Rasmussen.

 :applause:


Quit?  Please post where I have cited Rasmussen.  The bad news for you is over time Rasmussen has been one of the more reliable polls. 





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Offline clistensprechen

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2012, 12:30:41 pm »
Rhetorical plural "you".

No poll which excludes devices other than landlines and then uses party weights is ever accurate.
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Offline Woody

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2012, 12:35:38 pm »
Quote from: clistensprechen on September 22, 2012, 12:30:41 pm
Rhetorical plural "you".

No poll which excludes devices other than landlines and then uses party weights is ever accurate.


You need to read the methodology of Rasmussen.  You are good enough to find this article so searching for and posting the Rasmussen methodology page should be a snap for you.  And since many of the polls are within a few points of each other I am not really sure if your point deserves more than a passing consideration.
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Offline clistensprechen

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Re: Problem with polls.
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2012, 12:38:51 pm »
I did review the Rasmussen methodology and happen to agree with the evaluation of their methodology by scholars and professionals.
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